Identifying system archetypes in Nigeria’s rice agri-food system using fuzzy cognitive mapping

Nigeria is a major rice-producing and rice-importing country in Africa, challenged with ensuring rice-food security for its growing population. Successive governments have implemented several strategies to increase local rice production such as import restriction policies agricultural investments. These yielded results but achieving long-term sustainable growth Nigeria’s agri-food system has remained elusive. Addressing food sustainability systems requires systems-thinking approach. In this study, we applied two thinking techniques, fuzzy cognitive mapping (for describing the structure behavior) archetype analysis (to reveal generic archetypes effective improve system). Our revealed three archetypes: limits success, fixes that fail, drifting goals. Rice limited by low productivity indicating “limits success” archetype. Farmers tend area “quick fix” issues quick fix leads unintended consequences soil degradation (fixes fail archetype). Additionally, because of import-restriction generating an unmet demand rice, government may face pressure lower goal self-sufficiency falling into “drifting goals” However, our shows suspending would result undesirable states, reduced production. underscore importance increasing sustainably security.